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Method

Your ratings are pure gold.

After every match, you rate your shots, your morale, your sleep. This isn’t second-rate data to tide you over until a sensor comes along: it’s the measure sports science has used for more than forty years, from club level to the elite.

1982
the first perceived-exertion scale (Borg)
56
studies compared in the Saw et al. review
58
references checked on this page
01

What is self-reported data?

Self-reported (or declarative) data is a measure you produce yourself: a rating of your smash, your morale, your sleep, the effort you felt. Every scientific approach starts this way: observe, record, count, before explaining.

A rating you give yourself after each match is exactly that: a regular observation, taken under the same conditions, on the same scale. It’s the first floor of measurement, the one everything else is built on.

02

Forty years of sports science

In 1982, Gunnar Borg laid the foundations of the rating of perceived exertion scale 1. A meta-analysis later showed that this rating is linked to heart rate, blood lactate and oxygen uptake 3. In 2001, Carl Foster proposed multiplying a session’s effort rating by its duration: that’s session-RPE, which has become a standard measure of training load 2. It has been validated in many sports, for both sexes, at every age and every level 4, 5, 6, 7.

Wellness questionnaires (fatigue, stress, muscle soreness, sleep) follow the same logic 16, 20, 21, 22, as do mood profiles 17, 18, 19 and sleep questionnaires 24, 25, 26, 27. International consensus statements on athlete monitoring recommend them alongside physiological measures, from the International Olympic Committee to the European and American scientific societies 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35.

03

And in racket sports?

In tennis, perceived effort during a real match is linked to blood lactate 8, 9. In professional players, load measured by session-RPE tracks load calculated from heart rate 10, and it has been used to guide training at Roland-Garros 11 as well as with young players 12. In squash, it distinguishes between session types in professionals 14. One study compares the load of padel with that of singles and doubles tennis 13, and a review covers racket sports as a whole 15.

To be honest: we haven’t found a study that validates session-RPE specifically for padel, pickleball or table tennis. The results from tennis and squash are the closest.

04

More sensitive than many sensors

The systematic review by Saw, Main and Gastin (2016) compared 56 studies: subjective measures reflect training load, both acute and chronic, with more sensitivity and consistency than commonly used objective markers 23. Across more than 2,500 questionnaires in Australian football, wellness ratings track changes in load over the week and over the season 21.

An important caveat: these studies concern self-reported effort, fatigue and wellness, not the technical rating of a shot. For shots, the argument is different, and it comes just below.

05

What if I rate myself wrong?

We judge ourselves imperfectly: on average, self-assessment is only moderately linked to actual performance (a correlation of about 0.29) 37, 38, and it is often off, most often upwards 39. But it becomes more accurate when it concerns a specific domain, a familiar task, and when you’re used to assessing yourself 37, 38. In junior tennis, the shots estimated by players do not differ significantly from video analysis 36.

Above all, a constant bias doesn’t get in the way. If you always over-rate yourself by two points, all your ratings shift by the same amount, and the gap between your good and bad days stays the same. What matters isn’t a rating’s accuracy but its reliability: judging the same thing the same way every time 42, 43, 44.

That’s why the app compares you with yourself, never with others. What holds for a group often doesn’t hold for an individual 48, 49, and it’s by measuring the same player repeatedly that you separate a real trend from chance 50, 51, 52. Repeated self-reports, recorded in the moment, are reliable and limit memory errors 45, 46, 47.

06

The limits, no beating around the bush

A rating doesn’t say whether your smash is objectively good: it says what you perceived. It’s sensitive to your mood at the time and to the result. And it describes associations, never causes: “I win when I rate my smash high” doesn’t prove that the smash makes you win. It helps you spot things, not draw conclusions.

07

What MySportAPP does with it

Post-match ratings are treated as consequences of the result, never as causes: they don’t go into “what makes you win”. They’re read by comparing your wins with your losses, with minimum match counts, a displayed reliability level, and a pull back towards your usual level when matches are scarce.

Your level, meanwhile, is calculated as in the best tennis prediction models: a rating that goes up or down after each match depending on the opponent and the score margin, along with its uncertainty 53, 54, 55, 56. The points in a match aren’t entirely independent 57, and individual statistics help predict the outcome of a match 58.

The question is never “is this shot good?”, but “when you perceive it as successful, does your result change?”. And that relationship can be measured very well.

08

Tomorrow: how you feel and your body, side by side

Sports science distinguishes external load (what you do) from internal load (what it costs you), which includes perceived exertion 7. With the watch, your heart rate and your measured shots will join your ratings: the effort you feel, next to the effort your body records.

References

Every reference has been checked online (DOI resolved, abstract read). The one-sentence summary stays faithful to the study.

  1. Borg, G. A. (1982). Psychophysical bases of perceived exertion. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 14(5), 377–381. doi.org/10.1249/00005768-198205000-00012Lays the psychophysical foundations of perceived exertion scales (RPE and CR10).
  2. Foster, C., Florhaug, J. A., Franklin, J., Gottschall, L., Hrovatin, L. A., Parker, S., Doleshal, P., & Dodge, C. (2001). A new approach to monitoring exercise training. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 15(1), 109–115. doi.org/10.1519/00124278-200102000-00019Introduces session-RPE: the session's effort rating multiplied by its duration gives a training load.
  3. Chen, M. J., Fan, X., & Moe, S. T. (2002). Criterion-related validity of the Borg ratings of perceived exertion scale in healthy individuals: a meta-analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20(11), 873–899. doi.org/10.1080/026404102320761787Meta-analysis: RPE is correlated with heart rate (r ≈ 0.62), blood lactate (0.57) and oxygen uptake as a percentage of VO2max (0.64), with variations depending on conditions.
  4. Impellizzeri, F. M., Rampinini, E., Coutts, A. J., Sassi, A., & Marcora, S. M. (2004). Use of RPE-based training load in soccer. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 36(6), 1042–1047. doi.org/10.1249/01.MSS.0000128199.23901.2FAcross 479 sessions, session-RPE is correlated with heart-rate-based training loads (r = 0.50 to 0.85 depending on the player).
  5. Haddad, M., Stylianides, G., Djaoui, L., Dellal, A., & Chamari, K. (2017). Session-RPE method for training load monitoring: validity, ecological usefulness, and influencing factors. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 11, 612. doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2017.00612Review: session-RPE is valid, reliable and consistent across many sports, for both sexes, at all ages and at all levels.
  6. Foster, C., Boullosa, D., McGuigan, M., et al. (2021). 25 years of session rating of perceived exertion: historical perspective and development. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 16(5), 612–621. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2020-0599A 25-year review: session-RPE is an accepted marker of internal load, it remains stable when collected between 1 minute and 14 days after the session, and it is useful from patients to elite athletes.
  7. Impellizzeri, F. M., Marcora, S. M., & Coutts, A. J. (2019). Internal and external training load: 15 years on. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 14(2), 270–273. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2018-0935Clarifies the conceptual framework that distinguishes internal load (including perception) from external load.
  8. Mendez-Villanueva, A., Fernandez-Fernandez, J., Bishop, D., Fernandez-Garcia, B., & Terrados, N. (2007). Activity patterns, blood lactate concentrations and ratings of perceived exertion during a professional singles tennis tournament. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 41(5), 296–300. doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.2006.030536In a professional tennis tournament, RPE and blood lactate are higher in service games and correlated with rally duration.
  9. Mendez-Villanueva, A., Fernandez-Fernández, J., Bishop, D., & Fernandez-Garcia, B. (2010). Ratings of perceived exertion–lactate association during actual singles tennis match play. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 24(1), 165–170. doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e3181a5bc6dIn real tennis match play, RPE is significantly correlated with blood lactate (r = 0.48 to 0.57).
  10. Gomes, R. V., Moreira, A., Lodo, L., Capitani, C. D., & Aoki, M. S. (2015). Ecological validity of session RPE method for quantifying internal training load in tennis. International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching, 10(4), 729–737. doi.org/10.1260/1747-9541.10.4.729In 12 professional tennis players (384 sessions, 36 matches), session-RPE is correlated with heart-rate-based methods (r = 0.58 to 0.89 depending on the player).
  11. Coutts, A. J., Gomes, R. V., Viveiros, L., & Aoki, M. S. (2010). Monitoring training loads in elite tennis. Revista Brasileira de Cineantropometria e Desempenho Humano, 12(3), 217. doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2010v12n3p217Field report from Roland-Garros 2008: session-RPE is presented as an inexpensive and simple tool to monitor load and avoid excesses.
  12. Gomes, R. V., Moreira, A., Lodo, L., Nosaka, K., Coutts, A. J., & Aoki, M. S. (2013). Monitoring training loads, stress, immune-endocrine responses and performance in tennis players. Biology of Sport, 30(3), 173–180. doi.org/10.5604/20831862.1059169In young tennis players, training load measured by session-RPE and self-reported stress symptoms follow the periodization, in parallel with cortisol.
  13. Armstrong, C., Reid, M., Beale, C., & Girard, O. (2023). A comparison of match load between padel and singles and doubles tennis. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 18(5), 512–522. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2022-0330Perceived exertion and heart rate are higher in tennis singles than in doubles or padel; padel imposes a load of its own.
  14. James, C., Dhawan, A., Jones, T., & Girard, O. (2021). Quantifying training demands of a 2-week in-season squash microcycle. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 16(6), 779–786. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2020-0306In 15 professional squash players, session-RPE and differential RPE distinguish between session types; the match is not systematically the most demanding session.
  15. Cádiz Gallardo, M. P., Pradas de la Fuente, F., Moreno-Azze, A., & Carrasco Páez, L. (2023). Physiological demands of racket sports: a systematic review. Frontiers in Psychology, 14, 1149295. doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1149295Review of 27 studies on internal load in badminton, padel, table tennis, tennis and squash: badminton is the most intense, table tennis the least.
  16. Hooper, S. L., & Mackinnon, L. T. (1995). Monitoring overtraining in athletes. Sports Medicine, 20(5), 321–327. doi.org/10.2165/00007256-199520050-00003Proposes monitoring overtraining with simple indicators, including subjective ratings (fatigue, stress, muscle soreness, sleep).
  17. Morgan, W. P., Brown, D. R., Raglin, J. S., O'Connor, P. J., & Ellickson, K. A. (1987). Psychological monitoring of overtraining and staleness. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 21(3), 107–114. doi.org/10.1136/bjsm.21.3.107Over 10 years and 400 swimmers, mood disturbances (POMS) increase with training load and return to normal when it decreases.
  18. Beedie, C. J., Terry, P. C., & Lane, A. M. (2000). The profile of mood states and athletic performance: two meta-analyses. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 12(1), 49–68. doi.org/10.1080/10413200008404213Mood measured by the POMS moderately predicts performance outcome (ES ≈ 0.31) but not level of achievement, with clearer effects in open-skill sports.
  19. Terry, P. C., Lane, A. M., & Fogarty, G. J. (2003). Construct validity of the Profile of Mood States – Adolescents for use with adults. Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 4(2), 125–139. doi.org/10.1016/S1469-0292(01)00035-8Extends to adults the validation of the short version of the POMS (six dimensions, the basis of the BRUMS), in 2,549 participants including athletes before competition.
  20. McLean, B. D., Coutts, A. J., Kelly, V., McGuigan, M. R., & Cormack, S. J. (2010). Neuromuscular, endocrine, and perceptual fatigue responses during different length between-match microcycles in professional rugby league players. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 5(3), 367–383. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.5.3.367Self-reported fatigue, well-being and muscle soreness deteriorate for at least 48 h after a match, in parallel with the decline in vertical jump.
  21. Gastin, P. B., Meyer, D., & Robinson, D. (2013). Perceptions of wellness to monitor adaptive responses to training and competition in elite Australian football. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 27(9), 2518–2526. doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0b013e31827fd600Across 2,583 questionnaires of 9 items rated from 1 to 5, well-being scores are sensitive to load variations over the week and the season.
  22. Grove, J. R., Main, L. C., Partridge, K., Bishop, D. J., Russell, S., Shepherdson, A., & Ferguson, L. (2014). Training distress and performance readiness: laboratory and field validation of a brief self-report measure. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 24(6), e483–e490. doi.org/10.1111/sms.12214A 19-item questionnaire tracks performance decline in the laboratory as well as in the field, and low scores before competition are associated with better performance.
  23. Saw, A. E., Main, L. C., & Gastin, P. B. (2016). Monitoring the athlete training response: subjective self-reported measures trump commonly used objective measures: a systematic review. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(5), 281–291. doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2015-094758Across 56 studies, subjective measures reflect acute and chronic training load with greater sensitivity and consistency than objective measures, with which they generally correlate poorly.
  24. Buysse, D. J., Reynolds, C. F., Monk, T. H., Berman, S. R., & Kupfer, D. J. (1989). The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index: a new instrument for psychiatric practice and research. Psychiatry Research, 28(2), 193–213. doi.org/10.1016/0165-1781(89)90047-4Presents the PSQI, a self-reported sleep quality questionnaire that has become the reference instrument.
  25. Samuels, C., James, L., Lawson, D., & Meeuwisse, W. (2016). The Athlete Sleep Screening Questionnaire: a new tool for assessing and managing sleep in elite athletes. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(7), 418–422. doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2014-094332A 15-item athlete-specific screening questionnaire, reliable, which identifies those who need a specialist consultation.
  26. Driller, M. W., Mah, C. D., & Halson, S. L. (2018). Development of the athlete sleep behavior questionnaire: a tool for identifying maladaptive sleep practices in elite athletes. Sleep Science, 11(1), 37–44. doi.org/10.5935/1984-0063.20180009An 18-item questionnaire, reliable in test-retest (ICC = 0.87), moderately correlated with sleep time measured by actigraphy (r = −0.42).
  27. Mah, C. D., Mah, K. E., Kezirian, E. J., & Dement, W. C. (2011). The effects of sleep extension on the athletic performance of collegiate basketball players. Sleep, 34(7), 943–950. doi.org/10.5665/SLEEP.1132Extending the sleep of collegiate basketball players improves timed sprint and shooting accuracy, with mood monitored by the POMS.
  28. Bourdon, P. C., Cardinale, M., Murray, A., et al. (2017). Monitoring athlete training loads: consensus statement. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 12(Suppl 2), S2-161–S2-170. doi.org/10.1123/IJSPP.2017-0208Consensus (Doha conference, 2016) providing a common framework on the what, how and why of load monitoring.
  29. Soligard, T., Schwellnus, M., Alonso, J.-M., et al. (2016). How much is too much? (Part 1) International Olympic Committee consensus statement on load in sport and risk of injury. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(17), 1030–1041. doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2016-096581IOC consensus: recommendations for monitoring training, competition and psychological load, as well as well-being.
  30. Halson, S. L. (2014). Monitoring training load to understand fatigue in athletes. Sports Medicine, 44(Suppl 2), S139–S147. doi.org/10.1007/s40279-014-0253-zReviews markers (including perceived exertion, questionnaires, diaries and sleep) and finds that no single marker is authoritative.
  31. Thorpe, R. T., Atkinson, G., Drust, B., & Gregson, W. (2017). Monitoring fatigue status in elite team-sport athletes: implications for practice. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 12(Suppl 2), S2-27–S2-34. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2016-0434Self-reported measures are among the quick and promising tools, provided that a threshold for meaningful change is defined.
  32. Gabbett, T. J., Nassis, G. P., Oetter, E., et al. (2017). The athlete monitoring cycle: a practical guide to interpreting and applying training monitoring data. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 51(20), 1451–1452. doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2016-097298A practical guide to planning, analysing, interpreting and applying monitoring data.
  33. Coyne, J. O. C., Haff, G. G., Coutts, A. J., Newton, R. U., & Nimphius, S. (2018). The current state of subjective training load monitoring — a practical perspective and call to action. Sports Medicine – Open, 4, 58. doi.org/10.1186/s40798-018-0172-xSubjective measures can reflect mental fatigue, effort, stress and motivation; the authors recommend finer-grained scales and rigorous psychometric practices.
  34. Meeusen, R., Duclos, M., Foster, C., et al. (2013). Prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the overtraining syndrome: joint consensus statement of the ECSS and the ACSM. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 45(1), 186–205. doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0b013e318279a10aECSS/ACSM consensus: fatigue, decreased performance and mood disturbances are core signs of overtraining.
  35. Kellmann, M., Bertollo, M., Bosquet, L., et al. (2018). Recovery and performance in sport: consensus statement. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 13(2), 240–245. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2017-0759Highlights the variability between athletes and within the same athlete, and the value of systematic recovery monitoring.
  36. Murphy, A. P., Duffield, R., Kellett, A., & Reid, M. (2014). Comparison of athlete–coach perceptions of internal and external load markers for elite junior tennis training. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 9(5), 751–756. doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2013-0364In junior tennis, coaches underestimate players' session RPE (r = 0.59 only), whereas the strokes estimated by the player do not differ significantly from video analysis.
  37. Mabe, P. A., & West, S. G. (1982). Validity of self-evaluation of ability: a review and meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 67(3), 280–296. doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.67.3.280Across 55 studies, self-evaluation correlates modestly with performance (r ≈ 0.29), and accuracy increases with self-evaluation experience and when a comparison with the facts is expected.
  38. Zell, E., & Križan, Z. (2014). Do people have insight into their abilities? A metasynthesis. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 9(2), 111–125. doi.org/10.1177/1745691613518075Synthesis of 22 meta-analyses (including sport): mean correlation of 0.29, stronger when self-assessment concerns a specific domain and a familiar, objective task.
  39. Dunning, D., Heath, C., & Suls, J. M. (2004). Flawed self-assessment: implications for health, education, and the workplace. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 5(3), 69–106. doi.org/10.1111/j.1529-1006.2004.00018.xSelf-assessment is often systematically biased, notably by self-overestimation: this is the “constant bias” to be neutralized.
  40. Hughes, M. D., & Bartlett, R. M. (2002). The use of performance indicators in performance analysis. Journal of Sports Sciences, 20(10), 739–754. doi.org/10.1080/026404102320675602Classifies performance indicators (including “net and wall” sports) and recommends comparing and normalizing them.
  41. Courel-Ibáñez, J., Sánchez-Alcaraz Martínez, B. J., & Cañas, J. (2017). Game performance and length of rally in professional padel players. Journal of Human Kinetics, 55, 161–169. doi.org/10.1515/hukin-2016-0045Notational analysis of 1,527 World Padel Tour rallies: 40% of unforced errors occur within the first 4 seconds, and winners play longer rallies.
  42. Hopkins, W. G. (2000). Measures of reliability in sports medicine and science. Sports Medicine, 30(1), 1–15. doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200030010-00001A reference on reliability (typical error, test-retest) needed to judge whether an individual change is real.
  43. Atkinson, G., & Nevill, A. M. (1998). Statistical methods for assessing measurement error (reliability) in variables relevant to sports medicine. Sports Medicine, 26(4), 217–238. doi.org/10.2165/00007256-199826040-00002Review of methods for estimating measurement error and systematic bias.
  44. Bland, J. M., & Altman, D. G. (1986). Statistical methods for assessing agreement between two methods of clinical measurement. The Lancet, 327(8476), 307–310. doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(86)90837-8The limits of agreement method to distinguish constant bias from dispersion.
  45. Csikszentmihalyi, M., & Larson, R. (1987). Validity and reliability of the Experience-Sampling Method. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, 175(9), 526–536. doi.org/10.1097/00005053-198709000-00004Demonstrates the reliability and validity of repeated daily self-reports.
  46. Bolger, N., Davis, A., & Rafaeli, E. (2003). Diary methods: capturing life as it is lived. Annual Review of Psychology, 54, 579–616. doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.54.101601.145030Diaries capture experience in a way that conventional methods cannot; the authors recommend measures based on within-person change.
  47. Shiffman, S., Stone, A. A., & Hufford, M. R. (2008). Ecological momentary assessment. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 4, 1–32. doi.org/10.1146/annurev.clinpsy.3.022806.091415Collecting self-reports in the moment and in real-life settings reduces recall bias and increases ecological validity.
  48. Molenaar, P. C. M. (2004). A manifesto on psychology as idiographic science: bringing the person back into scientific psychology, this time forever. Measurement, 2(4), 201–218. doi.org/10.1207/s15366359mea0204_1Structures observed between individuals transfer to the individual only under conditions that are rarely met.
  49. Fisher, A. J., Medaglia, J. D., & Jeronimus, B. F. (2018). Lack of group-to-individual generalizability is a threat to human subjects research. PNAS, 115(27), E6106–E6115. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711978115Across six samples, within-person variance is 2 to 4 times greater than that observed at the group level.
  50. Kinugasa, T., Cerin, E., & Hooper, S. (2004). Single-subject research designs and data analyses for assessing elite athletes' conditioning. Sports Medicine, 34(15), 1035–1050. doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200434150-00003Argues for single-case designs in order to find out what works for a given athlete rather than for the “average” athlete.
  51. Barker, J. B., Mellalieu, S. D., McCarthy, P. J., Jones, M. V., & Moran, A. (2013). A review of single-case research in sport psychology 1997–2012. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 25(1), 4–32. doi.org/10.1080/10413200.2012.709579Reviews 66 single-case studies in sport psychology and their trends.
  52. Hecksteden, A., Pitsch, W., Rosenberger, F., & Meyer, T. (2018). Repeated testing for the assessment of individual response to exercise training. Journal of Applied Physiology, 124(6), 1567–1579. doi.org/10.1152/japplphysiol.00896.2017Testing the same person several times makes it possible to separate the true individual response from random error.
  53. Glickman, M. E. (1999). Parameter estimation in large dynamic paired comparison experiments. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 48(3), 377–394. doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00159An algorithm (the basis of Glicko) that improves on Elo by taking rating uncertainty into account, applied to chess and tennis.
  54. Kovalchik, S. A. (2016). Searching for the GOAT of tennis win prediction. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 12(3). doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2015-0059Across 2,395 ATP matches, 11 models are compared; ranking-based models and an Elo model are the most accurate (75% correct predictions among the top-ranked players, on par with bookmakers).
  55. Kovalchik, S. A. (2020). Extension of the Elo rating system to margin of victory. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(4), 1329–1341. doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.01.006Incorporating the score margin into Elo improves prediction; only the “joint additive” variant yields unbiased ratings.
  56. Angelini, G., Candila, V., & De Angelis, L. (2022). Weighted Elo rating for tennis match predictions. European Journal of Operational Research, 297(1), 120–132. doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.04.011Proposes an Elo weighted by the score of the last match to better capture current form.
  57. Klaassen, F. J. G. M., & Magnus, J. R. (2001). Are points in tennis independent and identically distributed? Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(454), 500–509. doi.org/10.1198/016214501753168217Across nearly 90,000 points at Wimbledon, points are not quite independent: the deviation is small, but more pronounced among weaker players.
  58. Barnett, T., & Clarke, S. R. (2005). Combining player statistics to predict outcomes of tennis matches. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16(2), 113–120. doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi001Combines individual serving statistics to predict the outcome and duration of a match.
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